Toyota Blue Grass (G1) & Arkansas Derby (G1) Analysis
April 12th, 2012By Jude T. Feld
Hansen will be heavily favored to win the $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass (G1).JOHN ENGELHARDT PHOTO
With only three weeks to the Kentucky Derby (G1), it is put up or shut up time for many three-year-olds. A lot of runners this weekend have already posted enough graded earnings to get into the Derby field and are just tuning up for their shot at glory. Others are outside looking in and need big performances to have a shot at the run for the roses. Here’s how I see it:
KEENELAND RACE 11 – $750,000 TOYOTA BLUE GRASS (G1)
The most accomplished runner in this race is HANSEN. The nearly white son of Tapit has a legion of fans and deservedly so. With just one defeat in his past performance chart, he has proven that he is tough and game. The Mike Maker trainee has faced some top-class colts in his career and beaten all of them except Algorithms. He owns two victories on the Polytrack at Turfway Park and showed in his Gotham (G3) victory that he has the ability to rate. A sparkling worktab since that race indicates he retains his sharpness. He should be tough to beat on Saturday.
HOWE GREAT has won his last four starts with aplomb while improving his Beyer speed figures in each outing. Trainer Graham Motion has had the Toyota Blue Grass (G1) in mind for this colt for some time, so it is safe to assume that he is perfectly prepared for a top effort. The son of Hat Trick has won on both dirt and turf, so the Polytrack should not pose any problems for him.
Blinker changes have been in vogue this Derby season. HANSEN took them off and won the Gotham (G3) and then PROSPECTIVE put them on to capture the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). The latter, a great-looking colt by Malibu Moon, has been thoughtfully prepared for his Kentucky Derby (G1) campaign by top trainer Mark Casse. He has responded with three excellent performances and improved speed figures. Often the second race in blinkers is better than the first, so another move forward could see him posing for pictures.
EVER SO LUCKY has had a rocky road to the Toyota Blue Grass (G1) – literally. A $600,000 two-year-old, he showed tremendous promise in his juvenile season, winning his debut and then running second to undefeated Derby hopeful Gemologist in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs. After a little breather, Hall of Fame trainer Jonathan Sheppard began to prepare the son of Indian Charlie for his Derby run and just when he was ready to run, EVER SO LUCKY bruised his foot. It’s been a game of catch-up since then, but a decent seven furlong prep and a couple of nifty workouts at Keeneland give him some hope for the history books.
OAKLAWN PARK RACE 11 – $1,000,000 ARKANSAS DERBY (G1)
Everyone who follows me on Twitter or listens to me on The Horse Racing Radio Network knows I am a SECRET CIRCLE fan. He is an ultra-talented colt who brings his A-game every trip to the post. Although the fields he has been beating in Arkansas aren’t as strong as the ones in Derby preps at Aqueduct, Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park, you can only beat the horses you face. He hated the racing surface in the Rebel (G2), looked hopelessly beaten at the half-mile pole and found the courage and strength to win anyway. The Bob Baffert-trained son of Eddington is all class.
The Rebel (G2) was reportedly a leg-stretcher for SABERCAT. The Delta Jackpot (G3) winner was allowed to lag at the back of the pack early on and managed a decent enough finish on a very speed-favoring track. Trainer Steve Asmussen has put some sneaky-good works into the son of Bluegrass Cat since his 2012 debut and he could surprise a lot of folks at a nice price. Look for him to be more tactically placed in this spot.
BODEMEISTER takes the blinkers off in an effort to help him relax. The outside post will force Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith’s hand a little bit however and I am expecting that the son of Empire Maker will make the lead – certainly not a bad place to be most days at Oaklawn Park. There are a lot of top handicappers who are very high on his chances here and the paired 102 Beyer speed figures from his last two starts indicate that they may be right. I think Baffert is using him as a gauge for SECRET CIRCLE, as he knows the ability of BODEMEISTER probably exceeds any of the competition the favorite has faced in Arkansas.
Sunland Park is usually not a Mecca for Derby hopefuls, but this year it just might be. ISN’T HE CLEVER was narrowly beaten by Daddy Nose Best in the Sunland Derby (G3) and that Steve Asmussen trainee is on many Derby top-ten lists. The gelded son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Smarty Jones is improving at the right time and it would not be shocking to see him grace the winners’ circle in Hot Springs for top New Mexico trainer Henry Dominguez.
